There’s a sentiment in the Real Estate community that during winter, transactions dip massively and that the busiest period of the year is during spring and summer.
We were curious as user traffic on Homes.co.nz hasn’t slowed over winter. We looked at the number of sales transactions each month from the past 5 years to find out whether winter really had a downer on sales volumes historically.
What we’ve found could help motivate you to stick at it over the colder months; in most regions. When you look at these graphs, remember sales are recorded on settlement date; we’re not looking at when properties are being marketed.
- Auckland, Hamilton, Tauranga, & Christchurch city centres do not suffer a significant winter slowdown.
- Wellington & Dunedin are the only centres with a noticeable dip in transactional volume
- January and December have the lowest sales volume
- Marketing yourself and properties during winter will yield results. The data shows that there are clearly buyers in winter, and people looking to list.
Lets start with one of NZ’s property hotspots, Tauranga.
Take a look at this graph.
When transactional sales are put on a graph, the only winter month that dips in sales volumes over the past few years has been August, with a dip of 0.54% below the average. Take note of the massive dip in January, a 22% lower than average sales volume.
Ok, but Tauranga has been experiencing Auckland’s halo effect. What about the South Island?
Interestingly, June and July were above the average for sales volume. August sat slightly below. Look at January and February, both figures below average dropping 31% and 13% down.
Hamilton’s persistent growth has seen it buck the so-called winter slowdown trend over the last five years. Sales are clearly strong throughout winter.
In fact, Hamilton’s cooler months outperform April, December, January, & even February.
Clearly Wellington follows a winter slow-down trend which could justify a holiday in the islands or well deserved ski trip. However, the winter months still outperform January.
Auckland doesn’t dip like Wellington does, but rather follows a stable trend during winter and then goes into overdrive in March.
Look at that enormous drop in January, 40% down in sales volumes. The largest of any of our centres. Clearly people aren’t keen to market their properties during the silly season.
Dunedin is the centre most affected by seasonal trends. Winter is bitter for Real Estate, while spring is much sweeter. Take note of the trend line, and how it still follows a dip in summer.
So when it comes to a slowdown, it depends entirely on where you are based.
If you live in Auckland, Christchurch, Hamilton, or Tauranga, winter is as good a time as any to tell your vendors that their property will sell.
Bar Christchurch, March is the most common time to have sales settle, so make sure you’re really active in marketing yourself in the buildup to those summer months.
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